Coronavirus - the facts, the future and what I think we should do
There is nothing to fear but fear itself.
Roosevelt said this in his 1933 inaugural address, and it stuck with me while writing this piece (tip to writing a long blog: start from the end and work backwards. It makes the intro so much easier to do).
Seems weird that I came into 2020 worrying chiefly about turning 30 and whether I would actually be able to learn to remember to turn the power off to the shower every time I use it (sorry, Laura). But things have definitely moved on since then.
In a dark way, it’s been incredibly fascinating to watch the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), and see how nations respond to it.
However, I am someone with loved ones to protect with my life and a personal anxiety that is only subdued by calmly researching a topic and writing about it (hence, why this blog exists).
So, I’ve spent the last few days reading every scientific source about coronavirus, getting angry at governmental responses to it and laying out what I see for the future of this.
DISCLAIMER
Important to note: I am not an expert. I have researched as extensively as possible across various medical sources (which I will link to when I use), and cross-scrutinised them with contradicting quotes from other experts in this area.
Will there be opinion in this piece? Yes, this is a blog after all. But that is all this is, an opinion of one person. Whether you agree or not is your prerogative, but whatever you do, do not adopt it in your life as fact.
For the official medical body’s line on what is happening in the UK, please visit the following pages:
How is it all going?
Well, I’m not going to lie. We have a bit to be concerned about.
The actual confirmed cases (does not include cases that have not been confirmed - e.g. if somebody just self isolates for 7 days without taking a test), as you can see from this graph collected using WHO data by University College London show that we are about 14 days behind the current levels we are seeing in Italy. You can see more graphical context here.
While the transmission levels in Italy remain high at a 22% daily increase, they used to be at 35%, which means one thing - the actions they are taking to stop the spread are beginning to work.
Looking at our country, the transmission rate remains at 35% daily increases, which could reduce in the semi-near future (more on that later). This all plays into the larger point as the wave in China is starting to subside, the increase in Europe began.
As we look across the globe to where this all started, China, we see a story of coronavirus slightly further on than the rest of us.
Full context of the chart: It was created by Tomas Pueyo, using data from the Journal of the American Medical Association’s graphs, sourced from raw case data from China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. While I personally disagree with the alarmist tone he takes here in his Medium piece, the data is accurate.
Orange bars show the number of reported cases coming out of the Hubei provision - how many were diagnosed that day after self-reporting and isolating.
Grey bars show the number of true cases - a stat you can only really collect by looking back, which China’s CDC did by asking all of these patients about their diagnostics and when their symptoms started.
In other words, the orange is what the authorities believed was happening through Doctor diagnoses, the grey is what is actually happening.
January shows the difference between reported and true cases to be massively out of line - while they were reporting 100 new cases a day, there were actually 1,500. But then, a few days later as cities began shutting down when the number of reported cases reached 400 a day (in reality, it was 2,500, but they were not to know that), you can see those true cases going down compared to the reported cases. Basically, the government is catching up and the actions they are taking are working. It has been going down ever since.
Now, in the UK, you’ve probably been hearing a lot about herd immunity - taking over Twitter timelines across the nation, which begs the question...
What the hell is herd immunity?
...Sounds a little scary, doesn’t it?
The science behind is kind of sound (the “kind of” part of it coming from the government’s interpretation), but it lacks humanity. Allow me to explain.
Herd immunity (otherwise known as herd protection) is pretty much what it says on the tin. If the disease infects a lot of people, your immune system will fight it and when you get over it, that limits the spread and essentially kills off the virus.
The Vaccine Knowledge project delves into more detail about this and uses an example of measles for context.
“For example, if someone with measles is surrounded by people who are vaccinated against measles, the disease cannot easily be passed on to anyone, and it will quickly disappear again. This is called ‘herd immunity’, 'community immunity' or 'herd protection', and it gives protection to vulnerable people such as newborn babies, elderly people and those who are too sick to be vaccinated.”
But there is one key problem with the government’s approach to adopting this for coronavirus. A herd immunity principal “only works” if the majority of a population have been vaccinated against a condition. It “does not protect against all vaccine-preventable diseases”.
In other words, there seems to be a big hole in the science here that nobody in the government response team is really able to explain away.
And the “lacks humanity” bit comes from looking at their expectations for 80% of the population to catch coronavirus and the current death percentage of 3.4% globally (1.25% for the UK taking into account reported cases, not true cases (we don’t have that number yet)).
That would mean out of the 66.44 million people in the UK, 883,500 people could die. And I get that when comparing it to the population at large, that number could be so much worse, but it is already a scary prospect as it stands.
Plus, with this glaring hole of a missing vaccine part of the herd immunity equation looming over our heads, this scenario becomes more concerning.
Which leads me nicely onto my next question...
Is the UK government’s current response enough?
I’ve already argued with family members on Facebook about this, so it’s not worth me making this bit about opinion - which for what it’s worth, I think it is a lackadaisical nationalist response to what should be far more strict to fall in line with internationalist efforts. The science is there in some part, but postponing tests compounds the issue and limits our further understanding, and not implementing social distancing measures puts more vulnerable people at risk.
That being said, let’s explore this - taking what I think out of the equation.
Looking at the data and information above, two key things seem to need to happen - testing and distancing. If there is not a complex effort to see what is going on, both in the immediate and looking back at self-reported cases, we may never get a hand on the extent of the disease spread.
Herd immunity is going to happen, but tighter restrictions on human contact now (as dictated by the data and science above) could stop it from spreading so rapidly and placing an unimaginable burden on our already struggling NHS.
So is our government’s response enough? Well, that’s up to you to form your own opinion on the above statistics and interpret the contradicting science in this area.
Plus, enough private companies in the UK are responding with stronger measures now (football league suspending, cancelling big events, etc) that they seem to be forcing the government's hand to begin to do more.
What do I think we should do? (emphasis on “I” - this is an opinion)
Of course, you’ve seen all the data above and the relentless research into this area has been staggering, giving me a sense of optimism.
We know what it is (unlike the two years it took to identify HIV), it is possible to test for it, we know that it can be contained from looking at China’s quarantine and containment measures, symptoms are mild in most cases (and young people are at low risk), people are recovering from it, prototypes of a preventative vaccine exist (some of which will soon be ready for human testing from the likes of Moderna, Inovio and the University of Queensland in Australia), and dozens of treatments are already being tested.
Simply put, science is fucking awesome.
But nonetheless, we do need to exercise more caution as a nation than the government is asking for at the moment (but that seems to be changing soon), not just to protect ourselves and those more vulnerable (my Mum's already offered to do a weekly shop and leave the bags in my Gran's porch for example), but to ensure our already struggling NHS can continue to provide the essential care.
That does not mean China-levels of draconian quarantining. Coronavirus is not airborne, so going and getting some fresh air (nice walk round the park, quick nip to the shops) is perfectly fine for people who are incredibly lucky enough to be able to work from home.
For those who are not, my heart goes out to you and the anxiety you must be facing right now, and I hope you find the support of friends and family if the government takes more steps to close businesses.
As for all of us as people of this Earth, our response should not be fear. Fear is an understandable feeling given the context, but there is nothing to fear. The scientific community is working overtime, even though experts will pick individual elements of governmental responses apart. All we can do is to take things day by day, listen to the experts (not politicians) and continue to try to enjoy our lives. This is a learning experience that we are all a part of.
And thanks to the fact the planet is more connected than ever through technology, maybe it's a good opportunity to digitally get more involved in your local community. Because as is clear from Italy, that community spirit overcomes fear.
Headline picture: Produced by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), this highly magnified, digitally colorized transmission electron microscopic (TEM) image highlights the particle envelope of a single, spherical shaped, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) virion, through the process of immunolabeling, the envelope proteins, using rabbit HCoV-EMC/2012 primary antibody, and goat anti-rabbit 10nm gold particles.