My plea to the Government — please delay Freedom Day, because we are not free until everyone is safe
Alongside the scientists, over 50% of the British public and the future health of young people across the nation, I have one simple request: delay Freedom Day, please.
I’m a tech journalist first, and I make no bones about that. You may have seen me in Laptop Mag and Tom’s Hardware throughout this year. But this wild ride I’ve been so lucky to go on over the past decade has given me the opportunity to dip my toes into plenty of scientific reporting.
It’s a fascinating space and teaches you one very simple lesson: the numbers don’t lie. Whatever spin people have on those numbers is up to them, but the numbers are fact and they can tell you a lot about what is happening now and what will happen in the future.
And the future doesn’t look great on this current trajectory towards Freedom Day on Monday 19th July.
DISCLAIMER
Same as what I said on my blog about Coronavirus way back in March 2020, I am no expert in these matters.
I have researched the topic extensively and any numbers/data used will be sourced. But the opinions are my own. Whether you agree or not is your prerogative, but whatever you do, make sure you remember this is just one person’s opinion.
For the official medical body’s line on what is happening in the UK, please visit the following pages:
What’s going on?
Daily case numbers of coronavirus are back up to their highest point since mid January. One in 95 people in England had tested positive over the past seven days. This has also impacted self isolation notifications (known as “pingdemic”) with over half a million people told to isolate by the NHS Covid app in the week to July 7.
But how many are actually following the guidance to self isolate? That bit is harder to ascertain in hard data, but given personal anecdotes I’ve heard from people deleting the app or simply ignoring it and taking daily lateral flow tests, alongside polling suggesting about 20% of UK adults have deleted the app, I think one in five people ignoring the advice is a solid estimation.
With this comes an increased chance of infection and a rise in the numbers. But there is one shining light in all of this, though — that’s the incredible vaccination program.
The NHS has done well to severely weaken the link between cases, deaths and serious symptoms that require hospital treatment. In fact, if we are to take a snapshot of the daily case numbers on 12th July (34,471) and do a percentage calculation alongside the 717 patients admitted on the 12th, that shows a 2% chance of hospitalisation. That’s less than half the 5% rate at the peak day for daily cases in the second wave, 8th January.
So it is weakened, but not broken in any way, as many people would have you believe. Even the Chief Medical Officer is sounding the alarm — identifying that hospitalisations are doubling every three weeks, meaning we could hit “quite scary numbers” soon and see restrictions return in "five, six, seven eight weeks' time".
This makes the topic of opening up a bit of a grey area in the minds of many. We are seeing cases increase, but hospitalisations are a far lower percentage of cases than they were in the second wave.
That’s a sign the vaccine is working for sure, but while the government are quick to jump to this point when explaining their decision making, they are ignoring three things:
Hospitalities lag behind cases by roughly three weeks and while they remain low on a percentage scale to cases, the growth could be exponential if cases skyrocket.
While hospitalities may remain low, Long COVID is a thing that is impacting a lot of young people (more on that later).
And, probably most importantly, the greater the number of infections, the more likely we are to create new variants that evade vaccines and (inevitably) send the whole planet back to square one. 1,200 scientists have written to the UK government, asking them to stop because of this.
This whole idea of “personal responsibility” (let’s be honest, a lot of people are morons and will just think COVID doesn’t exist anymore), reminds me of when I got into trouble for copying something another kid did because they told me to do so — more people will drop their responsibilities, as they see others do so (a “herd stupidity” if you will).
“Well, if they told you to jump off a cliff, would you?” The teacher would ask me in this situation.
And to be fair, that’s true to a point: the point being that if I jumped off a cliff, I’m only putting myself in danger. At the time of a pandemic, however, making decisions that put yourself in danger in the name of “freedom” puts everyone else around you at risk too.
Why am I so worried, personally?
I attended the Download Pilot, much like other excited festival goers who saw the media laud the success of these test events (even though the Government has quietly refused to release any data about how the events are actually doing), and the day after I returned, I tested positive for Coronavirus.
No, I don’t have any regrets about going and I take full responsibility for putting myself at risk, but given the fact I’m hearing about a lot of people leaving the festival with said virus, I took away a simple lesson: it’s far too early for pilot testing events.
Luckily, I only experienced the milder side: bad cold/flu symptoms, a couple days of feverishness, shortness of breath and really feeling drained all day.
However, some of those symptoms continue to persist, particularly the drained energy and shortness of breath. I’m not going to say this is Long COVID, as I am in no position to self diagnose and I haven’t had a doctor confirm this, but it's personal proof that coronavirus is not just a “one and done” kind of thing for young adults. It sticks with you, some worse than others.
And the numbers back me up. One in 20 people are likely to suffer from Long COVID, and to the more serious impact of people being hospitalised by the virus, Jeremy Hunt went onto Radio 4 and said “Covid hospital patients are doubling every two weeks. That means we are heading for 10,000 Covid hospital patients by the end of August, which is about 20 times higher than this time last year. It is a very serious situation.”
We can’t ignore this. The government who has a role to protect its country’s citizens shouldn’t ignore this. As Hunt said, the “warning light on the NHS dashboard is not flashing amber, it is flashing red,” and something needs to be done before it's too late again.
Knock-on effects
This bit will be short, but it’s just to highlight how one thing leads to another, which leads to more trouble.
Hospitalisations have climbed to around a third of the second wave peak in certain NHS hospital trusts (reported by South Tyneside & Sunderland, Gateshead and Bolton, amongst others). This is leading to cancellations of elected procedures, to make room for COVID cases, which increases the backlog and reduces our chances of helping people with other life threatening illnesses like cancer.
Something that you’ll hear a lot more about from the media is how many who get told to self isolate develop symptoms and test positive. As of right now, that’s a third (34%) — up from one fifth. So given the current ping-rate, you can expect to see another 171,664 over the next few days. It goes to show the possibility for uncontrollable growth.
What should we do?
I will be the first to say I want and need to be free of these damned restrictions. I’d love nothing more than a return to normality and for COVID-19 to be viewed in the same way as flu: an acceptable risk to everyday life.
But we are not there yet. The 70% herd immunity argument holds no weight anymore and while the problem is not as clear cut as COVID = deaths (yet), young adults are being hospitalised and affected with debilitating Long COVID symptoms.
The answer, in my opinion, is one that a lot of friends and family I know will not be happy with. It is one that the hospitality industry is going to hate. We need to go back to step 2 — drinking and dining outdoors with a revert to the rule of 6.
We’re not free until we’re all safe to be free and this is the fairest way across all people, including those with shielding guidance, to reduce the spread and bring the increasing risk of new variants down.
This will give the NHS a fighting chance of continuing to vaccinate at a fast pace and work through the huge backlog of patients.
If I had to pick between a return to normality and more restrictions to protect our health service, the answer is obviously the latter, and I hope that someone further up the chain than me in the Government thinks the same way.
Oh, and P.S. The test and trace service needs more funding and a better operational plan than just “tell everyone to self isolate.” Some companies are reportedly losing up to 10% of their workforce to it and being forced to close, with COVID financial support being taken away by the government over the next two months. Plus, I’m actually writing this while in self isolation (pretty typical of my luck to get pinged during a heatwave.
My proposed solution: put the funding into opening more PCR labs and improve the speed of getting results to within 3-6 hours. The ping sends a requirement to take a lateral flow test, which if positive, you get a PCR and a result quickly, to confirm whether you do indeed have the virus.
